COVID has changed the landscape of the NHL with demanding travel schedules and empty stadiums. Though there are many factors to consider that aren’t related to new changes to the game, looking at home advantage statistics will give fans good insight into each teams’ success with the upcoming Stanley Cup playoffs.
Below you’ll find the NHL home/away games win rate and goals scored, comparing the previous six seasons versus games played under new COVID conditions.
This is analysis of winning percentages and goals scored by home teams to highlight the differences on how ghost games (games without fans) has had on home ice performance.
Hockey home ice advantage has been affected by the absence of fans; teams have experienced a 10% drop in the home win rates. The five teams that seem to have benefitted the most at home of late all sit in the top 10 in points per game in the league.
Home teams seem to be losing more since COVID, but scoring has been consistent on home ice with a 0% goal change at 2.9 goals per game. The biggest risers are Edmonton, Carolina, and Colorado — all of whom have increased their home goal production by more than 20%.
The differences that the new Covid conditions have had on performance of visiting teams is shown by comparing win rates and goals scored in away games from the past six seasons compared to last 12 months of hockey.
Could it be that playing on the road has become easier for traveling teams without rival fans in the stands? Away winning rates have risen by 7% since Covid-19 changed the hockey landscape. 6 of the league’s 31 teams have increased their away win rate by 50% or more on the road under the new environment.
Away scoring is slightly up in the fanless-era as 2.9 away goals were scored per game from last season’s playoffs to the middle of the 2021 season compared to 2.6 away goals per game from 2013 to 2020.
Looking to see how your team has fared over the last season while it tries to navigate the new landscapes that COVID has created? Click on team logos to reveal the data on the effects that COVID conditions have had on home and road splits for your team.
During the COVID-era of hockey, winning at home is down 10% compared to the previous six seasons with away teams winning of matches. With the majority of home games being played in empty arenas and teams dealing with compact schedules, the data proves the logical conclusion that home teams don’t have the familiar advantages since the virus has changed how the game is played. This means home ice advantage for the playoffs may not be as valuable in 2021 as previous season’s which could benefit lower-seeded teams in the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs. For more information on the NHL and Stanley Cup odds, check out the NHL Betting Guide .
OnlineGambling.ca compiled hockey data from the last seven NHL seasons, collecting data on win percentages and goals from home and away games from covers.com.
Data from seasons 2013-2019 were used to create an average for winning percentage and average goals per game for comparison. Current season data only uses games since July 2020 where hockey teams have been playing under Covid conditions.
Data is correct as of March 2020.
Download the raw data set here.